Two recent surveys, by Deloitte and Finnish research organization VTT, examined the private vehicle market in the UK and Finland, respectively, assessing the overall cost of EVs and how incentives and pricing may shift how buyers see EVs in coming years. Deloitte finds, in its market forecast, that EVs will reach price parity with gas-fueled vehicles by 2022, a milestone which Deloitte likens to an industry tipping point. Following this tipping point, Deloitte believes EVs will begin to grow more popular, attaining a 10% market share by 2024. Deloitte warns, however, against over-estimating this demand, a likely scenario seeing automakers considerably overinvesting in the manufacturing of EVs in the coming decade, leading to a surplus of 14 million vehicles by 2030.

VTT’s report, meanwhile, offers insight on the overall cost of EVs compared to gas-fueled vehicles, assessing how many the average mileage users must reach annually for electric vehicles to overcome the initial price gap over the course of a five-year lifespan. This calculation is based on a comparison of the cost of gas versus electricity and the overall costs of operating the vehicles and observes that the tipping point comes somewhere between an average distance of 15,000 km driven per year and 30,000 km. The authors of the report are careful to add that these comparisons are subject to considerable shift if the cost of EVs were to fall or taxation and incentives were to increase the cost of gas vehicle operation or, conversely, reduce the cost of owning or acquiring an EV. This observation is also shared by the Deloitte study, noting that cities and states are capable of exerting considerable influence on the course of markets over the coming decade.

Read the complete Deloitte report Read the complete Deloitte report

Read VTT’s report (in Finnish) 

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